The Three-Stage Pattern Specific to U.S. Tourism During Global Wars

So, um, welcome to Monday. Looks like we're at war. I'm not going to pretend to know what all the eventualities are, but I can tell you how it "normally" plays out. So, I'm putting aside my personal feelings to bring a little calm during this shitshow: You're going to be OK.

Right now? Shock.

Phones light up.

Group chats spiral.

Someone asks, “What does this mean for tourism?”

And the honest answer is:

We’ve seen this before.

Not the exact headlines. Not the exact players. But the emotional rhythm? The way travel responds? The way destinations start holding their breath?

That part is familiar.

Tourism doesn’t disappear during global conflict. It changes shape.

And if you zoom out, past the panic cycle, a very clear three-stage pattern shows up every single time.

Let’s talk about it.

Stage One: Shock

This is the part you’re watching right now.

Flights get questioned. People refresh news feeds instead of booking trips. Destination leaders wonder if everything they planned just broke overnight.

The tourism industry always reacts fast to uncertainty because travel is emotional spending. When people feel unsure, they pause.

Airlines adjust schedules. International travelers hesitate. The words “wait and see” show up in every meeting.

This stage feels big because it’s loud.

But it’s usually short.

Stage Two: Substitution

People rarely stop traveling completely.

They just change where and how they travel.

When global tension rises, Americans historically:

• swap international trips for domestic ones

• choose closer destinations

• look for places that feel emotionally safer

• favor nature, wellness, or restorative experiences

The world feels complicated, so travelers simplify.

This is when tourism shifts instead of collapses.

You start seeing drive markets strengthen. Smaller destinations get rediscovered. Places that offer calm start to feel very attractive.

Tourism is less glass-shattering and more water-moving.

Stage Three: Perception Recovery

This is the slow, quiet phase that nobody notices until it’s already happening.

Air routes come back. Business travel returns first. International leisure follows later.

But here’s the real engine:

Perception recovers before reality fully changes.

When travelers stop feeling like they’re stepping into uncertainty, demand comes back, sometimes faster than expected.

The industry breathes again.

And suddenly everyone rewrites the narrative as if we knew it would happen all along.

What This Actually Means

The question I keep seeing isn’t really:

“Will tourism survive?”

Tourism always survives.

The real question is:

Which destinations become emotional refuge when the world feels heavy?

Historically, the winners during global uncertainty aren’t always the biggest markets.

They’re the places that feel:

• grounded

• human

• restorative

• close enough to feel safe but meaningful enough to feel worth the trip

People don’t just travel for location during these moments.

They travel for relief.

A note for destination leaders

If you’re feeling nervous right now, you’re not wrong.

This job asks you to hold community confidence when nobody has perfect information (or any information, really).

But this is not the moment to spiral into panic messaging or aggressive promotion.

This is the moment to:

• protect your people

• stay steady in your story

• understand that travel behavior is adapting, not disappearing

Tourism has survived wars, recessions, pandemics, and every headline cycle in between.

It doesn’t vanish.

It finds its way through.

Every time the world feels unstable, tourism reveals something important:

People don’t stop seeking connection.

They just look for places that help them feel human again.

And honestly? That’s been the job all along.

I’m Jenn Barbee. And sometimes the strongest thing a destination can do… is stay calm long enough for travelers to find their way back.